Every Monday, we pull the five most-traded questions on Kalshi and Polymarket that actually settle within the week, research them properly, and then make a prediction while including all our sources.
Each prediction gets a Geek Score from 0 to 100 depending on our level of certainty. Here’s the board for this week.
BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT?
Kalshi · Resolves Friday, Sep 18, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Our pick: $77,000 or above
Price at Monday, Sep 14, 10:00 a.m. ET: Yes 53c – No 47c
Our call: YES, Geek Score 72
Seven hundred and eighty-two dollars is the entire cushion between Monday morning’s price and the strike. Bitcoin traded at $77,782 with the 20-day EMA at $77,096, the 50-day at $73,381 and the 200-day at $72,287, so price is above every major daily average and the contract line runs almost exactly through the shortest one.
Start with the arithmetic. The 14-day average true range is $2,077, which works out to daily moves of roughly 1.7%. Four sessions of that noise, starting $782 in the money, puts the close above $77,000 about 62% of the time before anyone forms an opinion about direction. The market is paying 53c. That gap is the call.
Structure supports it. The 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day for the first time in nearly a year, and dominance at 58.88% says money is rotating into BTC rather than out of crypto.
The risk: Wednesday. The Fed decides at 2:00 p.m. ET and futures price an 80% to 87% chance of a quarter-point hike, with a dot plot attached. Risk assets have not priced a tightening Fed in this cycle, momentum is already fading with the daily MACD histogram at -717, and one analyst has Bitcoin rejected by its 50-week moving average three weeks running. A hawkish Wednesday erases $782 in an afternoon. That’s why this sits at 72 and not higher.
DET Lions vs BUF Bills
Kalshi · Resolves Thursday, Sep 17
Our pick: BUF Bills
Price at Monday, Sep 14, 10:00 a.m. ET: Yes 65c – No 35c
Our call: YES, Geek Score 76
Buffalo opens a brand-new Highmark Stadium on Thursday night, and first games in new buildings tend to be loud, emotional and hostile to visitors. Both teams arrive 1-0. Kalshi prices Buffalo at 65%, and DeFi Rate’s read of the exchange has the same game at Lions 41%, Bills 60%.
The two wins weren’t equal. Buffalo went into Houston and beat the Texans 36-31 on the road. Detroit needed every second of a 31-30 result at home against a New Orleans team that finished Week 1 winless. Same record, different evidence.
Short weeks favor the home team too, and Detroit travels to western New York on three days of rest.
The risk: Detroit’s offense is real, and a one-point win over the Saints is still a win against a defense that kept the game close. Buffalo also conceded 31 points in Week 1. If this turns into a shootout, 65c was closer to right than 76.
How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19)
Kalshi · Resolves Saturday, Sep 19
Our pick: At least 5
Price at Monday, Sep 14, 10:00 a.m. ET: Yes 51c – No 49c
Our call: YES, Geek Score 71
This contract opened Monday at 51c, which is what a market looks like before anyone checks the base rate. So we checked it.
Ballotpedia counted 254 executive orders, 59 memoranda and 136 proclamations in the second term as of April 2, 2026. That’s 449 presidential documents across roughly 62 weeks, or about 7.2 a week. The Federal Register’s own tally has 281 executive orders signed between 2025 and 2026, a pace no modern president has matched over two years.
The counterweight is that 2026 has been slower. The Federal Register’s index shows the Executive Office of the President published 191 documents in 2026 through September 10, which is about 5.3 a week. That sits right on the threshold rather than above it.
Two things push this week higher. There’s a Fed meeting Wednesday, and the White House has been issuing statements around the Gulf conflict at a steady clip since February. Nominations and appointments post in batches, and those count.
The risk: the 2026 pace genuinely is near five, not seven. A quiet week with two proclamations and one nominations batch resolves this No, and 71 would look like a number picked to clear the dead zone rather than one the evidence carried. This is the call we’d defend least hard.
CAR Panthers vs ATL Falcons
Kalshi · Resolves Sunday, Sep 20
Our pick: ATL Falcons
Price at Monday, Sep 14, 10:00 a.m. ET: Yes 49c – No 51c
Our call: YES, Geek Score 71
The sportsbooks and the exchange disagree on this game, which is rare enough to be worth trading. Kalshi has Atlanta at 49%. bet365 has the Falcons at -1.5 with a moneyline of -120, and FanDuel lists Carolina at +100 in Atlanta. Strip the vig from the books and Atlanta lands near 53%. Kalshi is four points cheaper on the home team.
Then there’s what Carolina put on film. The Panthers lost 59-37 at home to Chicago in a game that produced 96 combined points. Giving up 59 isn’t a bad afternoon, it’s a defense that couldn’t get off the field. Atlanta lost 20-13 in Pittsburgh, which tells you very little. A home favorite facing a division opponent in that state belongs above a coin flip.
The risk: DeFi Rate flags that the Falcons are working through a spate of injuries and that the market will move once the quarterback situation clarifies. If Kalshi is at 49c because traders know something about Atlanta’s availability that the books haven’t absorbed, then the exchange is the sharp price here and we’re on the wrong side of it. Our 22-point gap is the widest on the board and it rests on a Friday injury report we haven’t seen.
MIN Vikings vs CHI Bears
Kalshi · Resolves Sunday, Sep 20
Our pick: CHI Bears
Price at Monday, Sep 14, 10:00 a.m. ET: Yes 69c – No 31c
Our call: YES, Geek Score 75
Fifty-nine points. Chicago scored them in Carolina in Week 1, and the market has spent the days since deciding how much of that to believe. Kalshi settled on 69% for the Bears at home. bet365 makes it Bears -5.5 with a moneyline of -250, FanDuel has -240, and both imply something close to 71%.
Minnesota arrives off its own blowout, a 39-22 win over Green Bay at home, and that result is why the line isn’t larger. It doesn’t change where the game is played. Chicago has the home field and the better opponent-adjusted win, since Carolina’s defense is the one that just surrendered 59.
We’re being honest about what this is: the books and the exchange agree, and we agree with both.
The risk: this is the thinnest call of the week and we’re flagging it rather than dressing it up. Our score sits six points from the market price, which is inside our own threshold for whether a call is worth making. A 5.5-point home line in a division game is coin-flip territory once the ball is kicked, and Minnesota just scored 39. If you only take one position off this board, don’t make it this one.
The board
| # | Market | Platform | Resolves | Our pick | Our call | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT? | Kalshi | Fri, Sep 18 | $77,000 or above | YES | 72 |
| 2 | DET Lions vs BUF Bills | Kalshi | Thu, Sep 17 | BUF Bills | YES | 76 |
| 3 | How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19) | Kalshi | Sat, Sep 19 | At least 5 | YES | 71 |
| 4 | CAR Panthers vs ATL Falcons | Kalshi | Sun, Sep 20 | ATL Falcons | YES | 71 |
| 5 | MIN Vikings vs CHI Bears | Kalshi | Sun, Sep 20 | CHI Bears | YES | 75 |
All prices as of Monday, Sep 14, 10:00 a.m. ET. Markets move, and some contracts reset their base intraday, so check the live price before trading.
The board sits furthest from the crowd on Atlanta, 22 points above a 49c price, and that distance exists because we think Kalshi is lagging the sportsbooks rather than leading them. If the Falcons’ injury report says otherwise on Friday, the exchange was right and we were reading a stale quote.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing here is financial advice, it’s our read on the evidence. Trade responsibly, and if it stops being fun, the National Council on Problem Gambling is at 1-800-GAMBLER.
