Edition 07 of our prediction markets forecast went 3 of 5: Bitcoin, the White House, and the Bills paid, and two Sunday NFL picks lost by a combined 37 points.
| # | Market | Platform | Our call | Score | Market price at publish | Actual result | Hit / Miss | What moved it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT? ($77,000 or above) | Kalshi | YES | 72 | Yes 53c – No 47c | BTC near $81,000 Friday evening | Hit | Short squeeze after the Fed hike |
| 2 | DET Lions vs BUF Bills (BUF Bills) | Kalshi | YES | 76 | Yes 65c – No 35c | Buffalo won 41-31 | Hit | Bills offense outscored Detroit’s |
| 3 | How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/13-9/19) (At least 5) | Kalshi | YES | 71 | Yes 51c – No 49c | 10 entries dated Sep 14-18 | Hit | Four executive orders in three days |
| 4 | CAR Panthers vs ATL Falcons (ATL Falcons) | Kalshi | YES | 71 | Yes 49c – No 51c | Carolina won 34-3 | Miss | Five Atlanta turnovers |
| 5 | MIN Vikings vs CHI Bears (CHI Bears) | Kalshi | YES | 75 | Yes 69c – No 31c | Minnesota won 9-3 | Miss | Chicago scored no touchdowns |
BTC above $77,000 on Friday. Hit, and not close by the end. Our own slide named Wednesday’s Fed decision as the real risk, and the Fed did raise rates by a quarter point, its first hike since 2023. Bitcoin dipped under $76,000 midweek, then turned. Roughly $238 million in bitcoin short positions were liquidated on Friday as the price ran to about $80,850 that afternoon and around $81,000 in the evening, per CoinDesk and CoinGecko figures. The hike had been priced for weeks, so when it landed, there was nothing left to sell.
Bills beat the Lions. Hit. Buffalo won 41-31 on Thursday night to go 2-0. A ten-point margin in a game with 72 points is comfortable without being a blowout, which is about what a 76 should look like.
At least 5 presidential actions. Hit with room to spare. The contract settles on the White House’s Presidential Actions page, and that page lists ten entries dated September 14 to 18: four executive orders (water quality, hunting, saltwater angling and the H-1B program), three proclamations, one memorandum on government procurement and two Senate nomination notices. Strip out the Senate paperwork and the count is still eight. The 51c price was the market underrating how often this administration signs in clusters.
Falcons beat the Panthers. Miss, and the worst one of the season so far. Carolina won 34-3 in Atlanta. The Falcons ran for 157 yards and held the ball longer than Carolina did, then gave it away five times: three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and two lost fumbles. Bryce Young threw three touchdown passes. Turnovers are the noisiest stat in football, but five in one afternoon still says the quarterback play we were backing wasn’t there.
Bears beat the Vikings. Miss. Minnesota won 9-3 in Chicago on three Will Reichard field goals. The Bears outgained the Vikings 297 yards to 246 and lost anyway: five dropped passes, four sacks allowed, a blocked field goal and zero touchdowns, one week after putting 59 on Carolina. A 59-point opener is exactly the kind of number that inflates a Week 2 read, and one game is a thin base to build on.
This week’s hit rate is 60%. The running record is 21 of 29 across Editions 02 to 07, or 72%, with Edition 01 and one unsettled Edition 05 call still held out until they’re confirmed against settled contract pages. On calibration, every score this week sat between 71 and 76, so the board can’t tell us whether the confident calls outperform the borderline ones.
It does say something about where we disagreed with the crowd. Our biggest gap on a single football game was the Falcons, 22 points above a 49c price, and it produced the ugliest miss on the board. The two non-sports calls, where the edge came from data rather than a read on a matchup, both landed. Single NFL games remain the format’s weakest fit, and three of them on one board was one too many.
