Five calls, five hits. Every prediction from this edition landed, including the one we flagged going in as the board’s thinnest.
| # | Market | Platform | Our call | Score | Market price at publish | Actual result | Hit / Miss | What moved it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Open Men’s Singles Winner | Kalshi | NO | 25 | Yes 37c – No 64c | Alexander Zverev won the final 6-3, 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-2 | Hit | Ben Shelton beat Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set classic, but ran into a hotter Zverev in the final |
| 2 | US Open Women’s Singles Winner | Kalshi | NO | 35 | Yes 35c – No 66c | Elena Rybakina won the final 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 | Hit | Rybakina’s serve held up even after Sabalenka forced a third set |
| 3 | US gas prices tomorrow | Kalshi | YES | 78 | Yes 63c – No 41c | AAA’s national average kept climbing past the $4.2550 line | Hit | Crude stayed elevated on continued disruption at the Strait of Hormuz |
| 4 | BTC price on Friday at 5pm EDT | Kalshi | NO | 33 | Yes 44c – No 57c | Bitcoin held in the high $76,000s to $78,000s, short of $79,500 | Hit | Bitcoin stayed range-bound with resistance capping moves near $80,000 ahead of the August CPI print |
| 5 | EURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT | Kalshi | NO | 25 | Yes 36c – No 77c | The euro held near 1.16, short of the 1.167 line | Hit | Dollar strength kept the pair below the threshold through the week |
Ben Shelton carried American hopes further than anyone expected, beating defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set thriller that finished after 3:30 a.m. But Alexander Zverev was the steadier player across four sets in the final, closing it out 6-3, 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-2 for his second major of the year. The 23-year American men’s drought since Andy Roddick stretches to a 24th.
Aryna Sabalenka came into the final priced at almost even money with Elena Rybakina, and we said as much when we built the board. This was the thinnest call of the week, a 35 Geek Score against a 35c Yes price, a gap of zero that technically broke our own edge rule. We ran it anyway and said so plainly in the original write-up. Rybakina took it in three sets, denying Sabalenka a three-peat and taking over as world No. 1.
Gas prices did what the trend line suggested they would. The national average kept grinding higher through the week as crude stayed elevated on continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and the average cleared the $4.2550 line comfortably.
Bitcoin never got close to $79,500. It spent the week consolidating in the high $76,000s to $78,000s, with traders treating $80,000 as a hard ceiling ahead of the August CPI print. The range-bound call was the safer read, and it played out that way.
The euro told a similar story against the dollar. EUR/USD held near 1.16 through the week, short of the 1.167 line we called against, as dollar strength kept a lid on any real move higher.
The market that mattered most for calibration was Sabalenka, the one call built on almost no edge at all, and it still landed. That is closer to luck than to skill on that single market, and worth remembering the next time a thin call goes the other way. We do not have the earlier editions’ scorecards in this session to report a running hit rate, so this week’s record stands on its own until that file is back in hand.
